It comes as no surprise that there is a goaltending controversy with the Washington Capitals when you look at the numbers.  Jose Theodore, Semyon Varlamov and Michal Neuvirth are 3 winning goaltenders, with 3 similar save percentages and roughly similar goals against averages.  The only thing that isn’t really similar is the cost.  Theo currently is signed to a $4.5M contract, while both Varlamov and Neuvirth are signed through next year at $0.82M each.  When you look at it as purchasing a product, which is essentially what this business is, the Theodore deal seems incredibly expensive-  you have essentially paid 3 times as much for 1 guy as you have for 2 guys. Let’s take a quick look at the numbers, and play GM after the jump.

Would you bring Jose Theodore back? Let us know, after the jump!

Obviously extremely lucrative contracts are not unheard of in the NHL, or even on the Caps, especially when you consider OV’s salary at $9.5M (approximately 6x both Neuvi and Varly). It does, however, present an issue in the new NHL market under a salary cap.  The biggest issue a GM can take out of this, however, when considering Theo’s contract is the lack of a clear distinction between the numbers.  For all intents and purposes, by the books the three goalies are performing through the course of the season at the same level.  That’s taking all the good and the bad, shaking it up and seeing where it falls.

At this very moment, heading into the playoffs it’s hard to not make a case for Theo as the Caps # 1 goaltender, and I’m not going to dispute that.  I have a great deal of respect for the man, especially after losing his son this summer, then coming out this season and playing some of his best hockey in years.  I think it’s incredible, and it’s something to admire.  I will even go as far as to say that I like Theo and, business not withstanding, would like to see him in Washington for a while.  Unfortunately, hockey is a business and while liking a player factors into team chemistry the price still has to be right.

Let’s take a look at the whole team picture when we consider his price.  We currently have Varly and Neuvi signed for $1.6M total through next year, or roughly 33% of what Theo costs.  They are a small part of the current committed cap space for the Caps, who have about $36.569M committed against a cap of $56.8M.  That’s slightly more than $20M open.  Let’s take a look at the Caps who are UFA & RFA and not signed through next season to better see how this team can be kept together.

The forwards who are not signed for next season are:

*          Backstrom (RFA - estimated to make $6M)
*          Walker (UFA - $2.5M)
*          Belanger (UFA - $1.75M)
*          B.Morrison (UFA - $1.5M)
*          Fehr (RFA – estimated to make $1.2M)
*          Fleischmann (RFA -  estimated to make $1.5M)
$14.45M Estimated Total

The defense who are not signed for next season are:

*          Corvo (UFA - $2.625M)
*          S.Morrisonn (UFA - $1.975M)
*          Jurcina (UFA - $1.375M)
*          Schultz (RFA - estimated to make $1.975M)
$7.95M Estimated Total

So if we sign everybody above for what are my estimations (which are based on other players, rumors, and speculations… so definitely not science) we would be spending $22.4M to keep the team together.   Now that you know who we don’t currently have, let’s look at who we do out of the number of roster spots.

Forwards (6 of 12):

*         Ovechkin ($9.54M)
*         Semin ($6M)
*         Knuble ($2.8M)
*         Laich ($2.06M)
*         Chimera ($1.875M)
*         Steckel ($1.1M)
*         Bradley ($1M)

Defense (6 of 6):

*         Green ($5.25M);
*         Poti ($3.5M);
*         Erskine ($1.25M);
*         Carlson ($846K);
*         Sloan ($700K)
*         Alzner ($1.675M)

Goalies (2 of 2):

*         Varlamov ($822K)
*         Neuvirth ($822K)

If we take those numbers we have roughly $17.6M left over, which would mean we would need to shave $4.8M from our potential signings before we got the players signed.  That’s 2-4 guys not coming back as Caps next season.  Did you notice that Theo was not in those numbers?  Add in that $4.5M and you are looking at a lot more players not coming back as Caps… between 6-8 players.  A huge difference.

This doesn’t even take into consideration the free agent market which looks to be incredibly lucrative this summer with players like Nik Lidstrom, Scott Neidermayer, Patrick Marleau, Pavel Kubina, Tomas Plekanec, and Tomas Holmstrom on the market.

So you’re the GM…  who do you resign? Presuming that the Caps don’t want to make any moves in the free agent market place, which would be a surprise, I would wager the easiest decisions to make would be:

*         Scott Walker and Brendan Morrison are not resigned saving you $4M, but inking Belanger, Backstrom, Fehr and Fleischmann keep a solid corps together up front.

*        Shaone Morrisonn is not resigned saving you $1.975M and giving you a little bit of breathing room for call ups on the Salary Cap. I'm also interested in bringing back Corvo and Schultz.

The Capitals have a lot of options this off season, and they are a lot of GOOD options.  However, I feel signing Theo again would be a pretty big mistake considering the impact it would have on their Cap, even if he took a substantial pay cut.

Comments (16)

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written by Caps91, March 18, 2010

My vote is to not resign Walker, Morrison, or Theodore.. and put the money towards Marleau, Backstrom, and Schultz.

We're getting our money's worth with Morrison - but I think we need to shore up our centers, and Schultz has definitely developed his game over the past few seasons - and works well with Green's style of play.

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written by paidinfull, March 18, 2010

Excellent point.
I originally started down that path of who would be resigned and who we could potentially pursue in UFA, but felt it took me a too far away from the main point which is... can we afford to keep him for what we are paying him?

On your point, however, you wouldn't want to go after a D-man?

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written by Caps91, March 18, 2010

can we afford to keep him for what we are paying him?

No. But at some point he needs to look at his years left in the league vs. "I'm a Hart and Vienza Trophy winner, so I get CA$H!" I also think he would reassess his contract to stay on a winning team vs. signing with a non-contender.

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written by The Miz, March 18, 2010

Forwards I Keep: Belanger, Backstrom, Fehr, Flash
Defense I Keep: Schultz, Corvo (for a reasonable price)

Lineup:

Ovi-Backstrom-Knuble
Laich-???-Semin
Flash-Belanger-Fehr
Chimmer-Stecks/Gordon-Brads

Green-Sarge
Poti-Corvo
Alzner-Carlson

Varly
Neuvi

With that, I think you SHOULD still have enough money to sign a reasonable second-line center. This is assuming Belanger doesn't stay there long-term. Also, this is all from a now perspective, but if the Caps win a Cup, the price on these free agents is going to be driven WAY up a la Rob Scuderi. If you can't get Corvo at an OK price, look outside the organization, but I think Alzner/Carlson has to be around next season.

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written by paidinfull, March 18, 2010

I'm not sure anyone but Theo can make that assessment for himself. I happen to agree with you that his career is approaching a new chapter. The concern I have with signing Theo, or even another veteran for that matter is, when will we give our prospects an opportunity to grow or take the reins? The past two years have felt very "transitional" and I'm of the mindset it's Varly or Neuvi's time.

That being said, if the man is willing to take a significant pay cut, we are talking around 66%, and accept a potential new role, back up and mentor, then there is no reason why we shouldn't keep him. Those are decisions only he can make though, and given the way he is playing 15-0-2, I think he's making a statement he still wants to be a #1 and can be one. From an organizational stand point I'm not sure I see a fit, but I'm on the outside looking in.

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written by Krafty, March 18, 2010

Although I do agree that Corvo is a decent fit with the organization, I'd be okay with losing him and calling on our reserves in Hershey.

As for Theo, I'd also be okay with letting him go if he isn't able to negotiate a lower salary - but with this season I can see him going the same route Huet did.

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written by Wes, March 18, 2010

Ok time for my two cents whether you like it or not...

Theo: Offer him the current or lesser rate, If someone snags him that's fine. he has had a pretty good year considering the D (or lack there of ) in front of him.

Gotta keep Flash and Nicky B. Corvo and Walker, Chimera are getting up there in age. I'd offer them the same. We do well Finals/Cup, they'll want to stay on there own and play for a good team with great chemistry. These guys are stupid.

My worries have been Semin and Green Both having a roller coaster year considering the money. Offer them as trade bait? Green should stay, But Semin won't want to be in OVi shadow for much longer.

My biggest thing is to Keep John-boy Carlson. Kids got talent and great "filed sense"

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written by GREENwENVY, March 18, 2010

You know what you're getting with Theo. 3 straight seasons with 25+ wins. Varly is still untested (and takes forever to mend)

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written by Capa Capa Ding Dong, March 18, 2010

You know what you're getting with Theo. 3 straight seasons with 25+ wins. Varly is still untested (and takes forever to mend)

That's what I'm saying. Varly and Neuvi combined played as many games as Theo by himself. Can they rotate all season? Can either one of them carry a full load? Not sure I'm in a hurry to anoint either one the "starter".

There's Holtby and Ford waiting in the wings too. So we've got lots of untested talent...and only one that's proven.

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written by paidinfull, March 18, 2010

@GREENwENVY & @Capa Capa Ding Dong
The only issue I take with the "untested" comment is:
Obviously if you bring back Theo or another veteran exactly when are they going to become "tested"?

If you never play the goalies and you never iron out the kinks you're simply squandering the talent pool. It's quite possible one of the goalies is moved for another option because they are clearly valuable assets in this organization. 3 highly skilled potential number 1 goal tenders? That's a deep pool.

Try to keep in mind also that my thoughts were for next year, so that's what we are talking about, not this year.

What this means for Neuvi is probably a 2nd Calder Cup run(he was incredible in the 1st), combine that with his 17GP this season, and you've created a compelling argument for him to get a shot at being a NHL back up contending for a #1 spot. It's not a huge risk especially after you consider his price tag, $0.86M.

Look for Varly to get at least 4 more starts out of the remaining 12 games. You might not agree with it but BB will want to make sure either goalie can step up, if one begins to falter. Varly was great in last years playoffs, burned off, began to look great before his injury, and has since cooled off. Again, he was near the top of the NHL in GAA & SV% prior to his injury. Depending on whether he gets any playoff time if he unseats Theo... his low price tag of $0.86M makes it a hard choice either way.

The main point of my article, however, was to take a look at the financial impact resigning Theodore would have on the organization. It's important to think about: How much will Backstrom, Fehr, Flash and Schultz make? Those are dollars that have to come from some where, because all of them are going to get a raise or disappear.

Think of it like you've got $20 in your pocket. Keeping the team together as is, with no changes, will cost you $27, so since you have $20 you are $7 short. That means you can't actually keep the team together, so who do you give up and who do you keep? It's the whole "you can't have your cake and eat it to" argument. My article was looking at it like... You have 4 assets that the organization has a vested interest in:
Backstrom
Schultz
Fehr
Fleischmann

That will end up being roughly $12 of your $20... perhaps even more. So you spend another $4.50 out of your remaining $8, but haven't signed Belanger, Morrison, Morrisonn, Walker, Corvo or Jurcina. This would leave you short on D and down the middle.

@Wes
I hope I'm wrong, truthfully. I hope Theo takes a 2 year deal @ $1.5M a year and will be happy with less starts, potentially a back up role. I just don't know if I realistically see that happening.

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written by Neil (5ive Hole), March 18, 2010

Interesting post, and I am sure GMGM thinks about this as the season progresses.

A few thoughts that do not involve any math:

the Theodore deal seems incredibly expensive

by the books the three goalies are performing through the course of the season at the same level.

First, it is not just about $, but what is the opportunity cost of having Theo in net? Obviously you delay the maturation of the young goaltending core (Varly, Neuvy and Holtby) and the upside of the "Young Guns" is significantly better than Theo.

Second, I think Jose is in a lose-lose Catch-22 cliche-ridden situation:

a. If he plays well in the playoffs, the Caps won't be able to afford him.
b. If he plays poorly in the playoffs the Caps won't want to keep him.

Third, I think your estimates for Backstrom are low (I am in the minority who believe Backstrom will only take a ~5yr deal and become a UFA when Crosby's current ext expires - like Semin is doing with Kovy) and aside from Schultz I am not sure the other UFA D-Men will be with the team.

There will be vet goalies if the Caps need one who will come at a much lower price tag, if for nothing else than to play with a Cup Contender, which the Caps should be next year as well.

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written by Krafty, March 19, 2010

I'm still convinced that Semin's 1 year extension was only inked to sweeten the deal for a trade for him. If he was moved before the trade deadline, it would have allowed his new team to keep him on for an additional year without the worry of writing an inflated contract at seasons end. And if he's moved at the end of the season, it's so a new team doesn't have to worry about contract negotiations.

What's that mean for Theo? Well, if Semin is moved there would be more cash to throw around - but if it would find it's way to Jose's pockets I'm not sure.

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written by paidinfull, March 19, 2010

@Neil
Thanks, and some excellent points of your own! I agree that it will be very unlikely Theo will be a Capital next season. I like the guy a lot, but for the reasons you've pointed out it gets less and less likely. Especially with good veteran goalies out there for around $1.5M

#Backstrom
I agree about the term of the deal with Backstrom. I imagine he will get signed for an extended period of time, as you've suggested 5+ years. The rumors I have seen indicate a deal between 6-6.5 on the table over 5 years. I wouldn't go over $7M but who knows, it depends on the length of the contract.

@Krafty
It will be interesting to see if Semin gets moved and for what. I would be surprised, because that is a lot of offense lost as well as a lot of threat, which opens up ice for other players. I'm a fan of Semin though, but recognize he has a lot of maturing to do. I think even if Semin is moved that it is still unlikely Theo returns.

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written by Brian W., March 19, 2010

There are some tough calls to be made here, and I don't envy the position Ted and GMGM are in this summer. I feel like it's always tougher to make FA calls with hockey players than it is in other pro sports because the players tend to be more down to earth, more hard working guys that fans and team management appreciate and bond with. So as much as it's a business, there's a personal side even for the owners. That being said......
RE-SIGN: Backstrom, Belanger, Fleischmann, Corvo and Schultz
LET GO: Walker, Morrison, Morrisonn, Fehr and Jurcina
See where things shake out at the end of the season and see if Theo's willing to take a bit of a home town discount to stay. If not, stick with Varly and Neuvie and hope Holtby's on his way up fast.

The other thing worth taking into consideration is that a lot of the Caps are having career years this year and those numbers could help make them more valuable trade commodities over the summer.

One good thing - the Caps have an awesome lineup, a very likeable owner, a coach that the guys love and respect and a killer home arena atmosphere. This encourages current players and potential signing free agents to sign for less for the chance to play on a contender alongside the NHL's elite. Signing with the Caps automatically ups their chances for a Cup and their chances to have career years, like most of the Caps are this year. True, salary plays into it, but most of these guys make enough and aren't so greedy that they'd be willing to take a little less $ for the other rewards. Caps are in a strong position negotiation-wise and GMGM is a savvy dealer. I trust it'll turn out well, even if we will miss some of the great guys they've got this year.

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written by mikawa, March 22, 2010

I agree with the miz. As long as we keep the core offense together and most of our defense we should still be fine. I think it also depends on if we win the cup this year to see who we can afford to cut loose. Backstrom is the key piece without him I think we would drop a lot. As long as we have Ovechkin,Backstrom, Semin we should be a contender but the other players we need to sign are laich and Fleischmann. I really believe that we could interchange anyone else and still be a top 4-5 time every year for the next 5 years

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written by capskins, May 20, 2010

I say we resign almost none of our defensemen except Schultz only because he has a really high plus minus. We also resign Fehr, Fleischmann, and Brendan Morrison. They're great offensive players. Nobody else should be resigned. In free agency, we pick up key defensive free agents like Johnny Boychuk, Jordan Leopold, Anton Volcankov. We should also trade Jose to a bad goalie team like Columbus for a 1st round pick and get Cam Fowler.

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